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Solar activity

UTC

Friday, April 16th 2021, 09:15:00 UTC

Regions with Sunspots

  • 2814

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M01 %01 %01 %
Class X01 %01 %01 %
Proton01 %01 %01 %

PCAF: green

Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 15/0533Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/1242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/0533Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Apr, 18 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (17 Apr).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Middle Latitudes
Active40 %40 %35 %
Minor Storm15 %25 %15 %
Major-severe storm01 %05 %01 %
24 hr48 hr72 hr
High Latitudes
Active10 %10 %10 %
Minor Storm25 %25 %25 %
Major-severe storm50 %65 %50 %

3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)

Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster

BeginMaxEndXrayRegion
Wednesday, April 1403:5704:0804:15B1.3
04:5805:0605:12B1.5
06:5206:5807:10B2.3
Thursday, April 1500:0200:1000:14B1.7
10:5110:5811:04B1.0
15:2315:3015:39B1.4
Friday, April 1602:0502:1502:21B1.2

Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)

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