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Solar activity

UTC

Saturday, October 31st 2020, 03:30:00 UTC

Regions with Sunspots

  • 2778
  • 2779

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M15 %15 %15 %
Class X01 %01 %01 %
Proton01 %01 %01 %

PCAF: green

Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 30/0607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8657 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (31 Oct, 02 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 Nov).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Middle Latitudes
Active25 %30 %25 %
Minor Storm05 %15 %05 %
Major-severe storm01 %01 %01 %
24 hr48 hr72 hr
High Latitudes
Active15 %15 %15 %
Minor Storm30 %30 %30 %
Major-severe storm30 %45 %30 %

Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours

CONTINUED ALERTSN 3075
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu

Issue Time: 2020 Oct 30 0459 UTC

Continuation of Serial Number3074
Begin Time2020 Oct 25 1320 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux15796 pfu
Potential ImpactsSatellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)

Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster

BeginMaxEndXrayRegion
Thursday, October 2900:4500:5501:04B4.52779
04:1404:1904:23B3.12779
04:2304:3104:36B4.92779
04:4804:5705:07B8.92779
05:3005:3505:46B6.42778
07:5408:0208:06B4.42779
08:4908:5509:03B2.82779
09:2509:3409:39B3.12779
09:3909:4809:56B4.42779
10:0710:1910:27B9.62779
11:0511:1211:16B3.22779
11:1811:2611:30B3.82779
11:3011:5012:07C4.32779
13:1013:2013:27C1.02779
14:4614:5114:59B6.22779
15:5316:0216:08C1.32779
19:0319:1119:22B2.52779
20:0020:1620:38C1.52779
21:4121:4721:52B4.02779
23:1023:1423:20B2.92779
Friday, October 3000:0600:1200:16B3.52779
00:5801:0801:15B3.72779
12:0612:1412:18B2.32778
13:0813:1313:18B3.02778

Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)

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