| Begin | Max | End | Xray | Region | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, February 20 | 05:30 | 05:31 | 05:32 | A1.1 | ⎯ |
Solar activity
UTC
Friday, February 21st 2020, 20:30:00 UTC
Regions with Sunspots
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class M | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| Class X | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| Proton | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
PCAF: green
Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 19/2108Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2786 pfu.
Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % |
| Minor Storm | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| Major-severe storm | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % |
| Minor Storm | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % |
| Major-severe storm | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % |
Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
CONTINUED ALERTSN 3022
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issue Time: 2020 Feb 21 1259 UTC
| Continuation of Serial Number | 3021 |
| Begin Time | 2020 Feb 20 1625 UTC |
| Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux | 2790 pfu |
| Potential Impacts | Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems. |
ALERTSN 2149
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issue Time: 2020 Feb 21 0119 UTC
| Threshold Reached | 2020 Feb 21 0115 UTC |
| Synoptic Period | 0000-0300 UTC |
| Active Warning | Yes |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
WARNINGSN 3713
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issue Time: 2020 Feb 21 0017 UTC
| Valid From | 2020 Feb 21 0015 UTC |
| Valid To | 2020 Feb 21 0900 UTC |
| Warning Condition | Onset |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)
Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster
Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)