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Solar activity

UTC

Wednesday, August 12th 2020, 22:30:00 UTC

Regions with Sunspots

  • 2770

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M01 %01 %01 %
Class X01 %01 %01 %
Proton01 %01 %01 %

PCAF: green

Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 330 km/s at 12/0745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1575 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Middle Latitudes
Active05 %05 %05 %
Minor Storm01 %01 %01 %
Major-severe storm01 %01 %01 %
24 hr48 hr72 hr
High Latitudes
Active15 %15 %15 %
Minor Storm15 %15 %15 %
Major-severe storm10 %10 %10 %

3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)

Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster

BeginMaxEndXrayRegion
Monday, August 1023:4723:5223:58B2.3
Tuesday, August 1108:4808:5509:04B1.0
16:3216:5917:17B2.62770
19:3419:4119:47B1.0
23:2523:3523:41B1.9
Wednesday, August 1201:3701:4901:53B2.0
01:5802:0202:08B1.4
02:1702:2102:25B1.0
03:4403:5104:00B1.0

Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)

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