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Solar activity

UTC

Tuesday, July 27th 2021, 23:15:00 UTC

Regions with Sunspots

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (28 Jul) and expected to be very low on days two and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul).

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M01 %01 %01 %
Class X01 %01 %01 %
Proton01 %01 %01 %

PCAF: green

Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 336 km/s at 27/2053Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 27/1255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 410 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jul).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Middle Latitudes
Active30 %25 %10 %
Minor Storm10 %05 %01 %
Major-severe storm01 %01 %01 %
24 hr48 hr72 hr
High Latitudes
Active15 %15 %15 %
Minor Storm30 %30 %20 %
Major-severe storm40 %30 %20 %

3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)

Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster

BeginMaxEndXrayRegion
Tuesday, July 2702:0002:1302:34B1.9
19:1519:2319:29B5.22846
21:4421:5021:57B5.22846
22:0822:2622:40B9.72849

Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)

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