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Solar activity

UTC

Wednesday, September 18th 2019, 12:30:00 UTC

Regions with Sunspots

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M01 %01 %01 %
Class X01 %01 %01 %
Proton01 %01 %01 %

PCAF: green

Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 17/1318Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/2024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/2039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1141 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Middle Latitudes
Active20 %05 %05 %
Minor Storm05 %01 %01 %
Major-severe storm01 %01 %01 %
24 hr48 hr72 hr
High Latitudes
Active15 %15 %15 %
Minor Storm25 %15 %15 %
Major-severe storm25 %10 %10 %

Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours

EXTENDED WARNINGSN 3668
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Issue Time: 2019 Sep 17 2228 UTC

Valid From2019 Sep 17 1740 UTC
Now Valid Until2019 Sep 18 0300 UTC
Warning ConditionPersistence
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

(Extension to Serial Number 3667)

ALERTSN 2126
Geomagnetic K-index of 4

Issue Time: 2019 Sep 17 2226 UTC

Threshold Reached2019 Sep 17 2226 UTC
Synoptic Period2100-2400 UTC
Active WarningYes
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
WARNINGSN 3667
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Issue Time: 2019 Sep 17 1739 UTC

Valid From2019 Sep 17 1740 UTC
Valid To2019 Sep 17 2300 UTC
Warning ConditionOnset
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)

Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster

BeginMaxEndXrayRegion

Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)

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