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Solar activity

UTC

Tuesday, May 11th 2021, 03:15:00 UTC

Regions with Sunspots

  • 2822
  • 2823

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M15 %15 %15 %
Class X01 %01 %01 %
Proton01 %01 %01 %

PCAF: green

Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 10/0422Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/0514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 619 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Middle Latitudes
Active10 %30 %35 %
Minor Storm01 %10 %10 %
Major-severe storm01 %01 %01 %
24 hr48 hr72 hr
High Latitudes
Active20 %15 %15 %
Minor Storm20 %30 %30 %
Major-severe storm10 %40 %45 %

3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)

Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster

BeginMaxEndXrayRegion
Sunday, May 900:2700:4401:00B2.82822
01:0001:0901:12B2.32822
01:1201:1601:21B2.82822
04:1804:3604:42C1.62822
05:4205:4705:55B1.52822
05:5506:1106:34B3.02822
07:5407:5808:05B1.22822
13:3813:5814:09C4.02822
14:2014:4915:25C2.02822
19:2019:2419:31B1.82822
Monday, May 1007:3607:4407:50B1.0
10:4810:5711:01B1.9
13:4413:5213:56B1.92823
17:1617:2417:28B1.3
22:4922:5522:59B1.0
23:4623:5500:09B1.02282

Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)

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