| Begin | Max | End | Xray | Region | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday, May 9 | 00:27 | 00:44 | 01:00 | B2.8 | 2822 |
| 01:00 | 01:09 | 01:12 | B2.3 | 2822 | |
| 01:12 | 01:16 | 01:21 | B2.8 | 2822 | |
| 04:18 | 04:36 | 04:42 | C1.6 | 2822 | |
| 05:42 | 05:47 | 05:55 | B1.5 | 2822 | |
| 05:55 | 06:11 | 06:34 | B3.0 | 2822 | |
| 07:54 | 07:58 | 08:05 | B1.2 | 2822 | |
| 13:38 | 13:58 | 14:09 | C4.0 | 2822 | |
| 14:20 | 14:49 | 15:25 | C2.0 | 2822 | |
| 19:20 | 19:24 | 19:31 | B1.8 | 2822 | |
| Monday, May 10 | 07:36 | 07:44 | 07:50 | B1.0 | ⎯ |
| 10:48 | 10:57 | 11:01 | B1.9 | ⎯ | |
| 13:44 | 13:52 | 13:56 | B1.9 | 2823 | |
| 17:16 | 17:24 | 17:28 | B1.3 | ⎯ | |
| 22:49 | 22:55 | 22:59 | B1.0 | ⎯ | |
| 23:46 | 23:55 | 00:09 | B1.0 | 2282 |
Solar activity
UTC
Tuesday, May 11th 2021, 03:15:00 UTC
Regions with Sunspots
- 2822
- 2823
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class M | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % |
| Class X | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| Proton | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
PCAF: green
Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 10/0422Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/0514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 619 pfu.
Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10 % | 30 % | 35 % |
| Minor Storm | 01 % | 10 % | 10 % |
| Major-severe storm | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20 % | 15 % | 15 % |
| Minor Storm | 20 % | 30 % | 30 % |
| Major-severe storm | 10 % | 40 % | 45 % |
3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)
Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster
Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)