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Solar activity

UTC

Wednesday, March 3rd 2021, 07:15:00 UTC

Regions with Sunspots

  • 2806
  • 2807

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M01 %01 %01 %
Class X01 %01 %01 %
Proton01 %01 %01 %

PCAF: green

Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 657 km/s at 02/2038Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 02/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/1332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 605 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Mar).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Middle Latitudes
Active35 %20 %30 %
Minor Storm20 %05 %10 %
Major-severe storm05 %01 %01 %
24 hr48 hr72 hr
High Latitudes
Active10 %15 %15 %
Minor Storm25 %25 %30 %
Major-severe storm50 %30 %40 %

Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours

ALERTSN 1313
Geomagnetic K-index of 5

Issue Time: 2021 Mar 03 0503 UTC

Threshold Reached2021 Mar 03 0500 UTC
Synoptic Period0300-0600 UTC
Active WarningYes
NOAA ScaleG1Minor
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
SpacecraftMinor impact on satellite operations possible.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
EXTENDED WARNINGSN 1582
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected

Issue Time: 2021 Mar 03 0503 UTC

Valid From2021 Mar 02 2035 UTC
Now Valid Until2021 Mar 03 1200 UTC
Warning ConditionPersistence
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
SpacecraftMinor impact on satellite operations possible.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

(Extension to Serial Number 1581)

EXTENDED WARNINGSN 3846
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Issue Time: 2021 Mar 03 0503 UTC

Valid From2021 Mar 02 0830 UTC
Now Valid Until2021 Mar 03 1800 UTC
Warning Conditionpersistence
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

(Extension to Serial Number 3845)

ALERTSN 1312
Geomagnetic K-index of 5

Issue Time: 2021 Mar 03 0303 UTC

Threshold Reached2021 Mar 03 0300 UTC
Synoptic Period0000-0300 UTC
Active WarningYes
NOAA ScaleG1Minor
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
SpacecraftMinor impact on satellite operations possible.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
ALERTSN 1311
Geomagnetic K-index of 5

Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 2046 UTC

Threshold Reached2021 Mar 02 2046 UTC
Synoptic Period1800-2100 UTC
Active WarningYes
NOAA ScaleG1Minor
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
SpacecraftMinor impact on satellite operations possible.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
EXTENDED WARNINGSN 3845
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 2039 UTC

Valid From2021 Mar 02 0830 UTC
Now Valid Until2021 Mar 03 1200 UTC
Warning Conditionpersistence
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

(Extension to Serial Number 3844)

WARNINGSN 1581
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected

Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 2035 UTC

Valid From2021 Mar 02 2035 UTC
Valid To2021 Mar 03 0600 UTC
Warning ConditionOnset
NOAA ScaleG1Minor
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
SpacecraftMinor impact on satellite operations possible.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
ALERTSN 2197
Geomagnetic K-index of 4

Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 1801 UTC

Threshold Reached2021 Mar 02 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period1500-1800 UTC
Active WarningYes
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
EXTENDED WARNINGSN 3844
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 1453 UTC

Valid From2021 Mar 02 0830 UTC
Now Valid Until2021 Mar 02 2100 UTC
Warning ConditionOnset
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

(Extension to Serial Number 3843)

WARNINGSN 3843
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 0827 UTC

Valid From2021 Mar 02 0830 UTC
Valid To2021 Mar 02 1500 UTC
Warning ConditionOnset
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)

Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster

BeginMaxEndXrayRegion
Monday, March 100:1100:1500:19B1.1
01:0001:0901:13B2.0
02:3702:4602:51B1.7
05:0105:1105:15B2.0
06:3906:4306:47B1.92804
08:0208:0908:14B2.22804
13:0713:3914:15B1.52804
Tuesday, March 216:1816:2716:36B1.9
18:1918:2218:26B1.32807
23:5300:0300:07C1.22807
Wednesday, March 300:5601:0101:05B1.42807
01:2901:3401:38B1.62807
01:5001:5301:57B5.12807
02:2002:2202:29B1.22807
02:5203:0203:11B1.32807
03:4003:4303:47B3.02807

Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)

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