| Begin | Max | End | Xray | Region |
|---|
Solar activity
UTC
Saturday, January 16th 2021, 13:15:00 UTC
Regions with Sunspots
- 2796
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class M | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| Class X | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| Proton | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
PCAF: green
Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 324 km/s at 14/2109Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 223 pfu.
Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three (18 Jan).
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10 % | 25 % | 35 % |
| Minor Storm | 05 % | 05 % | 10 % |
| Major-severe storm | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15 % | 15 % | 10 % |
| Minor Storm | 20 % | 25 % | 25 % |
| Major-severe storm | 20 % | 30 % | 40 % |
3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)
Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster
Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)