| Begin | Max | End | Xray | Region |
|---|
Solar activity
UTC
Wednesday, September 18th 2019, 12:30:00 UTC
Regions with Sunspots
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class M | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| Class X | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| Proton | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
PCAF: green
Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 17/1318Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/2024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/2039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1141 pfu.
Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep).
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20 % | 05 % | 05 % |
| Minor Storm | 05 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| Major-severe storm | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % |
| Minor Storm | 25 % | 15 % | 15 % |
| Major-severe storm | 25 % | 10 % | 10 % |
Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
EXTENDED WARNINGSN 3668
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issue Time: 2019 Sep 17 2228 UTC
| Valid From | 2019 Sep 17 1740 UTC |
| Now Valid Until | 2019 Sep 18 0300 UTC |
| Warning Condition | Persistence |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
(Extension to Serial Number 3667)
ALERTSN 2126
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issue Time: 2019 Sep 17 2226 UTC
| Threshold Reached | 2019 Sep 17 2226 UTC |
| Synoptic Period | 2100-2400 UTC |
| Active Warning | Yes |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
WARNINGSN 3667
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issue Time: 2019 Sep 17 1739 UTC
| Valid From | 2019 Sep 17 1740 UTC |
| Valid To | 2019 Sep 17 2300 UTC |
| Warning Condition | Onset |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)
Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster
Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)