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Solar activity

UTC

Saturday, January 16th 2021, 13:15:00 UTC

Regions with Sunspots

  • 2796

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M01 %01 %01 %
Class X01 %01 %01 %
Proton01 %01 %01 %

PCAF: green

Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 324 km/s at 14/2109Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 223 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three (18 Jan).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Middle Latitudes
Active10 %25 %35 %
Minor Storm05 %05 %10 %
Major-severe storm01 %01 %01 %
24 hr48 hr72 hr
High Latitudes
Active15 %15 %10 %
Minor Storm20 %25 %25 %
Major-severe storm20 %30 %40 %

3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)

Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster

BeginMaxEndXrayRegion

Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)

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