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Solar activity

UTC

Saturday, June 12th 2021, 22:15:00 UTC

Regions with Sunspots

  • 2832

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M01 %01 %01 %
Class X01 %01 %01 %
Proton01 %01 %01 %

PCAF: green

Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 12/2100Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 112 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (13 Jun, 15 Jun) and quiet levels on day two (14 Jun).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Middle Latitudes
Active15 %10 %25 %
Minor Storm05 %01 %05 %
Major-severe storm01 %01 %01 %
24 hr48 hr72 hr
High Latitudes
Active15 %20 %15 %
Minor Storm25 %20 %30 %
Major-severe storm25 %10 %35 %

Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours

ALERTSN 2223
Geomagnetic K-index of 4

Issue Time: 2021 Jun 12 0452 UTC

Threshold Reached2021 Jun 12 0452 UTC
Synoptic Period0300-0600 UTC
Active WarningYes
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
WARNINGSN 3909
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Issue Time: 2021 Jun 12 0400 UTC

Valid From2021 Jun 12 0400 UTC
Valid To2021 Jun 12 1200 UTC
Warning ConditionOnset
Potential ImpactsArea of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced CurrentsWeak power grid fluctuations can occur.
AuroraAurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)

Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster

BeginMaxEndXrayRegion
Thursday, June 1004:3204:3704:57B2.62830
05:5906:4206:57C1.1
09:0209:0809:19B4.52831
Friday, June 1107:5808:0208:06B2.1
21:5522:0222:06B1.42832
Saturday, June 1200:3700:4700:52B1.5
01:2401:3301:45B2.4
02:4102:4402:48B1.4

Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)

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