Solar activity


Thursday, August 22nd 2019, 03:30:00 UTC

Regions with Sunspots

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M01 %01 %01 %
Class X01 %01 %01 %
Proton01 %01 %01 %

PCAF: green

Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 21/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/0123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/0153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 706 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Middle Latitudes
Active05 %05 %05 %
Minor Storm01 %01 %01 %
Major-severe storm01 %01 %01 %
24 hr48 hr72 hr
High Latitudes
Active20 %15 %15 %
Minor Storm15 %15 %15 %
Major-severe storm05 %05 %05 %

3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)

Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster


Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)

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