| Begin | Max | End | Xray | Region | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, March 1 | 00:11 | 00:15 | 00:19 | B1.1 | ⎯ |
| 01:00 | 01:09 | 01:13 | B2.0 | ⎯ | |
| 02:37 | 02:46 | 02:51 | B1.7 | ⎯ | |
| 05:01 | 05:11 | 05:15 | B2.0 | ⎯ | |
| 06:39 | 06:43 | 06:47 | B1.9 | 2804 | |
| 08:02 | 08:09 | 08:14 | B2.2 | 2804 | |
| 13:07 | 13:39 | 14:15 | B1.5 | 2804 | |
| Tuesday, March 2 | 16:18 | 16:27 | 16:36 | B1.9 | ⎯ |
| 18:19 | 18:22 | 18:26 | B1.3 | 2807 | |
| 23:53 | 00:03 | 00:07 | C1.2 | 2807 | |
| Wednesday, March 3 | 00:56 | 01:01 | 01:05 | B1.4 | 2807 |
| 01:29 | 01:34 | 01:38 | B1.6 | 2807 | |
| 01:50 | 01:53 | 01:57 | B5.1 | 2807 | |
| 02:20 | 02:22 | 02:29 | B1.2 | 2807 | |
| 02:52 | 03:02 | 03:11 | B1.3 | 2807 | |
| 03:40 | 03:43 | 03:47 | B3.0 | 2807 |
Solar activity
UTC
Wednesday, March 3rd 2021, 07:15:00 UTC
Regions with Sunspots
- 2806
- 2807
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class M | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| Class X | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| Proton | 01 % | 01 % | 01 % |
PCAF: green
Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 657 km/s at 02/2038Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 02/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/1332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 605 pfu.
Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Mar).
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35 % | 20 % | 30 % |
| Minor Storm | 20 % | 05 % | 10 % |
| Major-severe storm | 05 % | 01 % | 01 % |
| 24 hr | 48 hr | 72 hr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10 % | 15 % | 15 % |
| Minor Storm | 25 % | 25 % | 30 % |
| Major-severe storm | 50 % | 30 % | 40 % |
Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
ALERTSN 1313
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 03 0503 UTC
| Threshold Reached | 2021 Mar 03 0500 UTC |
| Synoptic Period | 0300-0600 UTC |
| Active Warning | Yes |
| NOAA Scale | G1Minor |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Spacecraft | Minor impact on satellite operations possible. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. |
EXTENDED WARNINGSN 1582
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 03 0503 UTC
| Valid From | 2021 Mar 02 2035 UTC |
| Now Valid Until | 2021 Mar 03 1200 UTC |
| Warning Condition | Persistence |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Spacecraft | Minor impact on satellite operations possible. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. |
(Extension to Serial Number 1581)
EXTENDED WARNINGSN 3846
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 03 0503 UTC
| Valid From | 2021 Mar 02 0830 UTC |
| Now Valid Until | 2021 Mar 03 1800 UTC |
| Warning Condition | persistence |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
(Extension to Serial Number 3845)
ALERTSN 1312
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 03 0303 UTC
| Threshold Reached | 2021 Mar 03 0300 UTC |
| Synoptic Period | 0000-0300 UTC |
| Active Warning | Yes |
| NOAA Scale | G1Minor |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Spacecraft | Minor impact on satellite operations possible. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. |
ALERTSN 1311
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 2046 UTC
| Threshold Reached | 2021 Mar 02 2046 UTC |
| Synoptic Period | 1800-2100 UTC |
| Active Warning | Yes |
| NOAA Scale | G1Minor |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Spacecraft | Minor impact on satellite operations possible. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. |
EXTENDED WARNINGSN 3845
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 2039 UTC
| Valid From | 2021 Mar 02 0830 UTC |
| Now Valid Until | 2021 Mar 03 1200 UTC |
| Warning Condition | persistence |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
(Extension to Serial Number 3844)
WARNINGSN 1581
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 2035 UTC
| Valid From | 2021 Mar 02 2035 UTC |
| Valid To | 2021 Mar 03 0600 UTC |
| Warning Condition | Onset |
| NOAA Scale | G1Minor |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Spacecraft | Minor impact on satellite operations possible. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. |
ALERTSN 2197
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 1801 UTC
| Threshold Reached | 2021 Mar 02 1759 UTC |
| Synoptic Period | 1500-1800 UTC |
| Active Warning | Yes |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
EXTENDED WARNINGSN 3844
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 1453 UTC
| Valid From | 2021 Mar 02 0830 UTC |
| Now Valid Until | 2021 Mar 02 2100 UTC |
| Warning Condition | Onset |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
(Extension to Serial Number 3843)
WARNINGSN 3843
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 02 0827 UTC
| Valid From | 2021 Mar 02 0830 UTC |
| Valid To | 2021 Mar 02 1500 UTC |
| Warning Condition | Onset |
| Potential Impacts | Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. |
| Induced Currents | Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. |
| Aurora | Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. |
3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)
Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster
Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)